Welcome to The Whip

OK, so you've done your analysis of the form and you've found the value horses. Now you've got to determine which is the best betting strategy to adopt to maximise your return. By using the various strategies outlined in the links on the sidebar you can improve your rate of return. Remember you are looking for the value bets. Nobody can pick all winners, but if you can get those value winners you are optimising your approach.

Even without purchasing The Whip (or it's companion products) you will find much to gain still by following these principles.

The Whip has a Bet Wizard to advise you on the type of bet to be targetted. Sometimes it will tell you to leave the race alone or to bet on Double Overlays only. On occasions it advises you to widen (lengthen) your prices or at times to reduce (shorten) your prices to a higher betting percentage. It may advise you to take a Quinella or to bet on a Trifecta etc.

The problem with most punters is that they bet on far too many races. One of the most difficult lessons to learn when doing your form and producing a set of prices is to NOT bet on the race. The temptation is great but you must learn to forget some races that are plainly in the too hard category and wait for the opportunity for a solid value betting race.

While The Whip's betting strategies are no guarantee of your betting results, it should make for a more successful punter. It uses a commonsence betting approach. The Whip scans your results and if the race has a standout selection it will tell you. If your first two runners look better than the rest it will tell you. Conversely, if it has 5 horse within 2 lenghts of the No. 1 selection it may tell you to forget the race entirely or to bet on Double Overlays only. It might tell you to halve your bet. Use it as a sort of money manager or a betting consultant working with you.

Good Punting and remember to use The Whip!

Betting Strategies

	Win
	Place
	Each-Way
	Doubles
	Trebles
	Trifectas / Tierce / First 4
	Stats
	Longshots

Win Betting

The Whip converts each horses winning chance into a percentage and then converts that percentage to a price. If the horse has a 50/50 chance then it has a 50% chance of winning and a 50% chance of losing, an Even Money bet. A 20% chance of winning would be a 4/1 chance etc. etc. In bookmaking odds these two horses might be shortened to odds on of about 4/6 and around 3/1 respectively.

The Bookmaker shortens odds to make his profit regardless which horse wins. Our aim as punters is to resist these short priced bad value odds and go for the good value selections. A 50/50 chance in The Whip's pricing is shown as a 6/4 chance and the 4/1 or 20% chance is shown around 5/1 etc.

Let's assume The Whip has priced it's race to 85% & the available prices on the TAB/Bookmaker (assume identical odds) are the following:-

Horse A. 3/1 = 25% chance The TAB/Bookmaker odds are $ 6.00 or 5/1
Horse B 9/2 = 18% chance. The TAB/Bookmaker odds are $ 3.00 or 2/1
Horse C 6/1 = 14% chance. The TAB/Bookmaker odds are $11.00 or 10/1
Horse D 7/1 = 13% chance. The TAB/Bookmaker odds are $ 4.50 or 7/2
Horse E 9/1 = 10% chance. The TAB/Bookmaker odds are $17.00 or 16/1
Horse F 20/1 = 5% chance. The TAB/Bookmaker odds are $ 6.00 or 5/1

Total % Book= 85%

In the above hypothetical market, Horse A, Horse C and Horse E represent good value according to The Whip's price assessment. They are the horses that you will bet on. You bet according to your own price percent. In other words, Horse A is a 25% chance you would bet in multiples of $25.00 eg. $12.50 at half or $100.00 ( 4 times odds %)

Horse B is a 18% chance you would bet in multiples of $18.00 eg. $9.00 or $72.00 ( 4 times odds % )

Horse E is a 10% chance you would bet in multiples of $10.00 eg. $5.00 or $40.00 ( 4 times odds % )

If you were betting to 4 times the % your bets would tally $212.00
At half the % chance your bets would be only $26.50

Should any of the horses win the race then you win on the race. Let's look at the figures if your were betting 4 times the % chance and Horse A wins the race.

$100.00 on Horse A pays $6.00 = $600.00 minus $100.00 = $500.00
Less your losing bets on B $72.00 & E $40.00 = minus = $112.00
You Win = $388.00

If one of the others win you win also. Do your own calculations. It's a great method used by many professional punters. It increases the odds of winning. It also puts the percentages and the odds back in your favour.

The bookmakers odds could have been greater than that mentioned above. This is one of the main reasons that seasoned professionals attend the races to compare the prices of the TAB and the bookmakers, particularly when Win Betting Strategies are used.

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Place Betting

As with all forms of betting the odds on offer must represent value. If you take below the true value you will lose in the long haul. It is that simple.

With The Whip, the object is always to find value for your punting dollar.

Place betting should adopt the same strategy as in the Win Betting Strategy. The only difference is that instead of placing your money on all the value horses to win you place the monies on one or two horses to place. Betting on more than 2 horses in a race could prove impossible to win in the long run because the odds are working against you.

Use the information that is now at your fingertips with the Race Statistics to guage what No 1 selections in a particular class and distance of race are best suited for betting. You are best to stick to races with at least 8 runners. That is the limit to the place pool on the TAB and with most bookmakers. If you have less than 8 runners then they pay only for 1st and 2nd placegetters. The smaller the field the worse Each Way bookmakers suffers. The larger the fields the harder it is to snare that place betting win.

In large fields of usually 24 runners in the UK they pay place dividends on 1,2,3 & 4 which makes you wonder why Australian Bookmakers don't offer the same.

The Whip suggests that you experiment with the top two selections only if they represent value for money.

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Each-Way Betting

This method of betting is the one still most favoured by the general public. Whether it works as well as a Win Betting Strategy is debatable.

The reason most use it is because if the horse does not win the race but manages to place then some monies are returned to the punter. Bookmakers pay 1/4 of the win odds for a place. In other words, a 4/1 placed horse pays even money.i.e. if you had $50.00 each way ( $100.00 bet) on a 4/1 chance and it comes 2nd or 3rd then you get $50.00 x even money = $50.00 plus place stake of $50.00 = $100.00 back and no loss was suffered by you.

If it happens to win you get $200.00 plus $50.00 win stake plus your place $100.00 totalling $350.00 minus bet of $100.00. You win $250.00.

Most professionals favour a win betting strategy however some very successful each way punters still manage to do well. So trail both if you like and work out which one suits you.

The Whip suggests you use a similar idea to the Win Betting Strategy. Work out which horses are the best value. Bet on 2 or 3 main chances if the value permits it. Halve the % chance and place 50% of the stake on to win and 50% of your stake on to place. Don't be concerned if the odds on offer are as low as 5/2. Still bet each way if that is your preferred approach.

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Double Betting

The Whip suggests that in any investment, unless you are investing at a value entry price, your return on investment will be low. This principle applies to all forms of investment including doubles. Value for money is everything particularly when betting on race horses.

In Doubles you are looking for the value of the combination that is on offer if both selections win.

Some only bet on horses that are within their price range. In this way they eliminate more horses than others might and therefore miss out on the combination value. The Whip prefers to look at the overall combination price. In other words, you might have a horse at 2/1 favourite and you know that it is only paying around 7/4 on the TAB or with the bookmakers. If you eliminate this horse from either leg then you often miss out badly when it wins along with the other legs better value chance. You may have 4 horses in the other leg which you estimate are extremely good value prices. You miss out more often than not by not taking the 2/1 selection and the double pays a better return than you estimated.

I suggest the following:-

Bet all combinations according to The Whip's price and bet to take out a set figure on each combination. Delete those combinations that are well below your estimated return. Some combinations that you would delete might be 2/1 and price available 7/4 combined with the other leg of say 3/1 and the odds on offer 5/2. To ascertain the value required you simply treat them like an all up bet. You add 1 to both your price multiply them and then deduct 1
e.g.
( 2/1 + 1) x ( 3/1 + 1 ) = ( 3 X 4 ) = 12.00 minus 1.00 = 11/1

Price on offer (1.75 + 1) x ( 2.5 + 1 ) = 9.62 minus 1 = 8.62/1 Delete Combination as bad value.

You could Include the following 2/1 where price available 7/4 and 5/1 price on offer 7/1 i.e.
Your odds required ( 2/1 + 1 Multiplied by 5/1 + 1 ) = 18 minus 1 = 17/1 chance.
Their price ( 1.75 + 1) x ( 7 + 1 ) = 22 minus 1 = 21/1 chance

Important

If you see a price for The Whip's Number 1 selection well below the odds required then it might be wise to delete the double entirely. Say you price 2/1 and the horse comes up odds on then the weight of money on any horse in the other leg may result in a bad value double. In these cases best to wait for another day.

How much to bet on each combination?

Include all value combinations and bet to win a set amount per double at your price.
i.e. You have a 17/1 combination and you want to take out a $100.00

Simply add 1 to your price combination and divide it into $100.00 i.e. $100/18 = $5.50

The Easy Way!

Instead of performing the above calculations for all your possible combinations,go to Multiples Made Simple (or Doubles Made Simple) and simply enter your prices beside the horse number in both legs. Enter the amount you want to win and press Calculate. Print this out and you are ready to place your bet combinations along with the amount to invest on each.

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Treble Betting

The Whip suggests that value for money is paramount in most investments. In Trebles, just like doubles betting, you are looking for the value of the combination that is on offer if all three selections win.

Some only bet on horses that are within their price range or represent value. In this way they eliminate more horses than others might have and invariably miss out on the winning combination value. I prefer to look at the overall combination price. In other words, you might have a horse at 2/1 favourite and you know that it is only paying around 7/4 on the TAB or with the bookmakers. If you eliminate this horse from either legs then you often miss out badly when it wins with the other two legs better value chances. You may have 4 horses in each of the other legs which you estimate are extremely good value prices. You miss out more often than not by not taking your 2/1 selection and the treble ends up paying a better return than you estimated.

I suggest the following:-

Bet all combinations according to The Whip's price and bet to take out a set figure on each combination. Delete those combinations that are well below your estimated return.

Some combinations that you would delete might be 2/1 and price available 7/4 combined with the other legs of say 3/1 the odds on offer 5/2 and the 3rd leg a 7/2 chance that is paying 3/1 .

To ascertain the value required you simply treat them like an all up bet. You add 1 to all your prices multiply them and then deduct 1.

i.e.( 2/1 + 1) x ( 3/1 + 1) x ( 3.5 + 1 ) = ( 3 X 4 x 4.5 ) = 54 minus 1 = 53/1 combination

Price on offer (1.75 + 1 x 2.5 + 1 x 3 +1 ) = 24.5 minus 1 = 23.5/1
Delete Combination as below your required return therefore represents bad value.

Include the following example 2/1 where price available 7/4 and 5/1 price on offer 7/1 and third leg 4/1 price available 6/1 i.e.
Your odds required ( 2/1 + 1) x ( 5/1 + 1 ) x ( 4/1 +1 ) = 90 minus 1 = 89/1 chance. The odds on offer ( 1.75 + 1) x (7 + 1) x (6 +1) = 154 minus 1 = 153/1 chance

Important

If the price for The Whip's number one selections in two legs are well below the odds required then it might be wise to delete the treble entirely.

Say you price 2/1 and the horse comes up odds on and the second leg is at similarly bad value then the weight of money on any horse in the remaining leg may result in a bad value treble. In these cases best to wait for another day. Might be a time to look at another type of multiple like Trifecta's?

How much to bet on each combination.

Include all value combinations and bet to win a set amount per the treble at your price.
i.e. You have a 32/1 combination and you want to take out a $1000.00
Simply add 1 to your price combination and divide it into $1000.00 i.e. $1000/33 = $30.00

The Easy Way!

Instead of performing the above calculations for all your possible combinations,go to Multiples Made Simple (or Trebles Made Simple) and simply enter your prices beside the horse number in for all legs. Enter the amount you want to win and press Calculate. Print this out and you are ready to place your bet combinations along with the amount to invest on each

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Trifecta Betting known as a Tierce in HK

There are many other options when betting on trifectas/ tierce and First4's. We do not recommend the BOXING method as this is the most widely abused method used by the ill-informed punter. Therefore bad value usually ensues with the first 5 or 6 runners favoured by the smaller punter. Your aim is to beat the general public by being a little smarter.

The Whip usually recommends the Banker type bet or the Multiple Trifecta type combinations.

Multiple Trifectas

Bet only on races when you have 13 to 14 or more runners. First4's in Australia where the exact order of finish is required, you could drop the number of runner down to 12. The more horses then the more chance of something adverse happening in a race and therefore a big payout. I like races between 14 and over. In particular, look for the bigger races that attract a lot of ill-inofrmed money like cups like the Melbourne Cup, Caulfield Cup etc. Expecially be on the look out for Jackpot races where a large pool carrys over.
Include all the horses in order of The Whip's selections. These selections will be used as a banker, or standout when it comes to doing your multiple trifectas. Go to the table below and if The Whip's price of the favourite is within these parameters then you include the recommended number of runners as the Second and Third placegetters selections. Remember to use The Whip's price and not the TAB's .
The Trifecta and the number of place combinations will depend on YOUR price of YOUR No 1 selection using . Your betting on a (Queensland TAB) Banker Trifecta. On NSW TAB it is referred to as a Standout Trifecta and in Victoria Supertab it is known as a Key Box Trifecta. In Hong Kong naturally you use the Hong Kong Jockey Club betting accounts. It's illegal for Hong Kong residents to bet outside of Hong Kong so we do not encourage anyone to break thier own laws.
The recommended stategy using The Whip's own prices:-
Some members have had great success using the top THREE in The Whip's markets only. What they do and we certainly recommend it, it to check the prices on ALL the TAB's (HK punters check HKJC) and write these down beside the respective horse.
When one of these top three is 1.5 times The Whip's required Odds......i.e. $5.50 and TAB's are showing say $8.50 or longer, then that horse becomes a Standout / Banker horse.
If there are 2 in the top 3 which also are 1.5 times our required odds, then you have 2 Standout / banker horses
Take ALL horses (at The Whip prices) down to say 50/1 (minimum) and add these to your 2nd line (to finish 2nd). Remember if you have 2 horses in there then they have to appear in the 2nd line as well.
For the 3rd line add to the above ALL horses out to 100/1
First4 takers, might then add to the above ALL horses out to 200/1 to finish 4th.

Banker Trifectas (SEE ABOVE)

The Multiple Trifecta strategy can be modified for use with the Banker Trifecta (Qld) Standout Trifecta (NSW) or Key Box trifecta. ( Vic.). For other states check with your local TAB on what name they have given this type of bet.

Staking Strategies for Multiple & Big Payout trifectas

If you are entering this area of investment for the first time, I suggest you start with a $ 0.50 cent unit multiple and work upwards as your bank and confidence grows.

Do not be too hasty to increase your multiple outlay. Historically, trifecta's have longer runs of non-collects. You aim to make your betting pay so with each eligible bet plan to bet to about 3% to 4% of your trifecta betting bank.

i.e. I recommend that you start with a minimum betting bank of $ 1,500.00. With each combination your maximum outlay should be a maximum of 4% of this or around $ 60.00.

Remember you are deleting some bad value selections which might leave you with say 2 or 3 trifecta's at a cost of between $ 20.00 or $ 30.00. This will even out your average outlay down to around 2 to 3% of your trifecta betting bank.

The Whip suggests that you work towards having telephone accounts in all the Eastern States and compare all available win prices. A teletext TV is all you need to obtain the up to date information. If this is not practical then use your state TAB odds. If the win prices on offer are below the following delete the bet.

When your horses price after using The Whip is similar to these prices below then I suggest you do include this multiple trifecta bet

$ 3.40 or below then use .50 cents variation as a bet to be included.
( i.e. $ 2.90 your price and TAB only paying $ 2.40 include this bet )

$ 7.50 to $ 3.50 then use .60 cents variation as a bet to be included.

$ 10.80 to $ 7.60 then use .90 cents variation

$ 15.00 to $ 10.90 then use $ 1.20 variation

Above this figure then use $ 2.00 variation

If you want to simplify the above, you might deduct about 12% off the odds calculated by you in the program. for example a 4/1 chance or $5.00 TAB price minus 12% = $4.40

Naturally if the track conditions are hopelessly wet then you are advised not to bet.

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Statistical Betting

The Whip has an extensive database of results stretching back to Dec. 94. With this record we have been able to research many aspects of our selection process. This program is available to you under the Race Statistics button on the main menu.

What can this do for you?

It tells you quickly and accurately the record The Whip has had in the races that it has worked on. It tells you by the class of race, by the track condition, by the track, by the distance and over whatever period of time you select.

Using this research, it's results tell you which races to tread very warily in and conversely it has told you what races in which to bet more confidently.

Conclusions and Suggestions

For races where your No. 1 strike rate is below 25% you should reduce you betting percentages on the race to 75% rather than the usual 85%. This type of race is obviously harder to predict than the others. By doing this you are making the horse that you select exceptional value. You know it is a difficult race so The Whip suggests you bet on the best possible value.

For races where your No. 1 selections are over 35% then you increase your betting percentages on the race from 85% to 95%. You are obviously much better at this type of race and can therefore bet with much more confidence.

Another Suggestion

The figure in the Zero Rating limit box in the Race Statistics window can be altered to suit your own requirements. For example you can insert a Kilogram figure above the static 0.2k until you get to a 50% win strike rate. Note down this figure. Let's assume for this exercise it is 1.2 k. Then increase the figure in the Zero rating limit box until your win strike rate has reached 80%. For this example let's assume this was 3.6 k. Note this figure down also.

These are two very powerful figures in which to work with. You know that the horses at 1.2 k or below have an even money chance of winning. You also know that the winners of 80% of races in this class over this distance come from within a 3.6 k of your number one selection.

While in the Rate the Race window, the horses Normalised Rating greater than the 3.6 k figure could be taken out of contention for this race by inserting a ( minus) - 5 k in one of their race factors. Maybe use the JOP factor column or whatever other column that has a zero figure. After doing this to those horses refresh the race. All horses below 3.6 k will have their price shortened. All horses outside of 3.6 k will be out the back gate at 250/1 or higher. Not worthy of a bet as they are one of the horses with only a 20% chance of winning the race. We must have a cut off point and The Whip suggests deleting these for win betting purposes.

With the new set of prices, the ones at 1.2k or lower you could re-price them to 95% book. In other words shorten these further. See Betting Percentages for further information.

The horses between 1.3k ( between 50% & 80% chance ) and up to 3.6k could be increased in price to a book of 75%. In this way you will find that your betting percentage on the your field remains around 85% to 88%. These now become your new set of prices to attack the TAB or the Bookmaker.

Before you exit from the race delete the minus -5 from the form factors section and refresh the race once again. Otherwise your database will be out for gattering race statistics in some future time.

For trifecta purposes you are best to retain your original prices on the field for inclusion of the place getters. e.g. if a horse was 3.7k and was originally priced at 33/1 then you may still include this selection to be placed in a banker/standout trifecta bet if recommended to do so in the Bet strategies.

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Longshot Betting

What can this do for you?

Using this research, it's results tell you which races to tread very warily in and conversely it has told you what races in which to bet more confidently.

Conclusions and Suggestions

Another Suggestion

With the new set of prices, the ones at 1.2k or lower you could re-price them to 95% book. In other words shorten these further. See Betting Percentages for further information.

Before you exit from the race delete the minus -5 from the form factors section and refresh the race once again. Otherwise your database will be out for gattering race statistics in some future time.

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