|
The following sections
have been designed to help the novice and other handicappers improve
their handicapping skills.
Analysing
Sprint Racing
The most difficult races to predict
when using weight as your basis for prediction. Over four years
of The Whip race statistics prove that races up to and including
1400m have a much worse No. 1 selection winning strike rate when
compared to races at 1600m and beyond. The longer races are much
more predictable and their strike rates for the No. 1 selection
are outstanding in some cases.
It is important to know the running
styles of all the runners to determine just how the race is likely
to pan out. Sort them into likely front runners, on pace runners,
mid-field runners and the back-markers. Are there any fast beginners
that might make the front runners work harder than they are used
to? Is the track a tight one in which the back-markers will find
it very difficult to get a clear run when needed in the run to the
finishing line? See Track Bias
Will the usual on pace runners be
left further back than usual because of the fast pace on up front?
Or will the back-markers be suited by the fast pace up front and
swoop home over the top of the tiring front running division?
A tecnique that I often use when I
feel there may be unusual pace is tto use highlighting pens. The
bright yellow, the green, the blue and the pink.
Colour coding the runners into:-
Frontrunners being bright yellow.
The on-pace runners are green.
The mid-field division are blue.
The back-markers are pink.
By using this simple technique you
quickly can sort out the likely positions in running at various
distances of the race. Then you can go back and look at every horse
and penalise them if you consider that they will be disadvantaged
in the running of the race.
For example. There may be a moderate
back-marker with an apprentice on board on a tight track like Caulfield.
An obvious area where an extra penalty for lack of skill in steering
the horse home in the short straight run to the finish might be
called for. The front running horse has an apprentice on board who
has won on it before. You might reduce the horses JF( Jockey Factor)
to zero as you feel the horse will suffer no disadvantage out front
and has the class to keep going strongly to the line.
So many possible scenarios that make
sprint racing the most difficult of all the races in which to handicap.
The better you are at predicting the likely running positions of
each runner the better your handicapping will become.
Top
Barrier Factors
" Most average horses are disadvantaged
by certain barrier positions at various tracks."
When you enter a barrier against a
horse in The Whip, the program automatically adds a barrier penalty
factor (BF) in the Rate the Race window. Every major track in Australia
has been entered and the barrier factor for the particular distance
has been calculated. It takes into account the individual track
layout.
Even the state of the track condition
is taken into consideration by The Whip. If the track condition
is either side of "Good" then the barrier factors are
adjusted. If very wet tracks then a major reduction in the BF takes
place. If the track is "Record Fast" then the barrier
factors are adjusted upwards. Do not adjust the BF unduly. One exception
might be when you know that the horse in question is a Fast Beginner
who will not be troubled by the outer barrier. It has worked quite
well for and it will work quite well for you too.
Top
First
Up Form
The outstanding form paper "The
Sportsman" gives you the First Up from a spell performances
of each horse under the detailed form section.
Don't confuse this with First Up from
a Let-up. A let-up is when a horse has not raced from between 6
weeks to 11 weeks.
A word of caution
Just because a horse ran well First
Up from a spell as a younger horse, say as 2yo or 3yo does not guarantee
that the horse will repeat these performances this preparation.
Check where the performance took place
before you presume that the horse will repeat it this time. Check
on it's trackwork. Again this informantion is usually found in the
trackwork section of The Sportsman. Has the horse undergone any
barrier trials and if so has it performed well? Is the trainer one
who normally sets his horses for a first up win or not? If your
homework convinces you that the horse is ripe for a good first up
run by all means definately include it into the chances.
Remember when you are looking at past
performances to add any WFA Improvement that might be expected now
the horse is older.
After determining where the horse
will rate First Up this preperation, use this figure as your BRR
for the upcoming race. On the weights when compared to other runners
the horse may be well out of contention regardless on whether the
horse will run right up to their best. On the other hand it might
be well handicapped and could easily win the race.
As distances increase so does the
likelyhood of finding a first-up winner decrease. Up to 1100 the
winning horse can be First Up about 26% of the time. Over 1200m
this might drop to around 15% while over 1400m it could be as low
as 8% etc. etc. Only the smart horses from very astute stables can
condition a horse to win at 1600m and longer.
Top
Second Up Form
Some horses need the hit out from
a first up run to bring on their race fitness to allow them to win
or race up to their potential. If this is the case, they often can
win at their second up run.
The Sportsman gives you the 2nd up
performances in their detailed form section. While this is undoubtedly
extremely useful, it can be a trap for those handicappers who are
not prepared to put a little bit more effort into their form analysis.
At the previous 2nd up attempt, while
they may have won or were placed, it may have been against mediocre
opposition over a different distance range. The 2nd up attempt this
time in might be against much stronger class and at a distance which
might not be ideal. The horse might improve just like they did last
time in but not enough to beat the superior class of today's field?
By keeping your past performance form
ratings up to-date in The Whip you can quickly go back and see how
the horse rated then add any weight for age improvement expected
and then use this figure as the possible BRR for this race. Under
the circumstances of this race the horse may be well in on the weights
or conversely it might be out of it's depth.
Top
Let-up Form
Horses often require a break from
racing. They may have lost form, or suffered an injury or simply
the trainer wants to freshen the horse for another campaign.
They are not given a full spell of
3 months or longer but are given 6 to 11 weeks off racing which
we call a let-up.
Some horses perform very well in their
first run back from a let-up and others need a run or two to return
to their best ratings. The Whip's database comments field is an
ideal place to record whether a horse has returned from a let-up.
By studying the past rating performances when returning from a let-up
you will be able to ascertain how well the horse might go in the
upcoming race.
History shows that in sprint distances
more horses perform reasonably well when returning from a let-up.
They may be right back to where they left off before the break.
Others may be 3 to 6 kilograms below where they left off before
the break.
As distances increase it becomes very
difficult for most to match the race hard fitness levels of the
opposition.
Top
Horse Jockey Riding
Combination
Often a jockey of lesser skill manages
to ride a great race on a particular horse. If they have done this
on 2 such occasions in the past, then the Jockey Factor penalty
could be deleted completely if you are satisfied that the Horse/Jockey
combination is a good one and should result in another well judged
ride.
If uncertain reduce the penalty by
about 50%. Some bad jockeys can ride well at times but over the
year their inconsistency shows up and the bad judgements seem to
re-emerge.
Top
Jockeys
The Whip has most of the riders currently
active in Australian and some New Zealand racing. The penalties
or bonuses are automatically adjusted accordingly when a jockey
is allocated as the rider in Rate the Race window. You may view
these jockey factors (JF) on this form.
The best jockey in the land may be
riding about 18 to 22% winners to rides. A very high win strike
rate. You would have this world class jockey on a 1.5k bonus. The
Jockey Statistics graph will enable you to gauge this strike rate.
The above average jockey may be riding
between 13% to 17% and you might have a riding bonus ranging from
+1.2k to +.8k
The average rider might be around
9 to 12% and no penalty or bonus would be recommended here.
Below average riders tend to range
below this level of success. These penalties would range from -2.2k
for the worst to a -.4k depending on just how low the strike rate
is. Some as low as 3% would be at the maximum penalty yet a 8% stike
rate might only be a -.4k penalty.
Use your own judgement here.
Top
Pace in Races
Many handicappers rely on the pace
that horses travel in races as a guide to where the horse will finish
in an upcoming race. The Whip does not take this variable into consideration
as there are too many areas to consider to make it reliable as a
guide.
If you are able to guess the likely
pace in a race and think that it will suit a particular horse in
this race, then I suggest you give that horse a bonus of 1 or 2k
in the X-Factor column in the Rate the Race window.
If The Whip can be convinced that
there is a handicapping advantage to using some form of Pace ratings
or Pace Handicapping tool then we will incorporate it into one of
our future programs.
The running style of horses is summed
up in Analysing Sprint Form.
Top
Rating Provincial
and Country Track Form
New South Wales Prov. & Country
The major tracks in NSW that come
under the Provincial Circuit are:-
Newcastle, Kembla Grange, Hawkesbury,
Wyong, Gosford and Canberra (ACT). These races are usually held
mid-week.
Most other tracks should be classed
as Country tracks for rating purposes:-
Ballina, Cessnock, Goulburn, Gundagai,
Gunnedah, Grafton, Inverell, Moree, Monuya, Musswellbrook, Nowra,
Queanbeyan, Scone, Tamworth
A HINT. Look at the prizemoney on
offer. If it is roughly the same as the Newcastle or Hawkesbury
races then it could be safely assumed that the class might be up
to Provincial class ratings.
CAUTION Most times the Saturday form
at some of these venues is usually lower in grade than their mid-week
events.
BE AWARE Sometimes Country tracks
have carnivals. Check the prizemoney and the quality of the horses.
These races most times could be looked on as Provincial Class.
A TRAP Somethimes the Provincial form
is so low in grade that they could be relegated down to Country
race meetings and their ratings.
PROVINCIAL Quality Handicaps sometimes
attract city class horses. Again look at the prizemoney and the
class of racehorse entered. You might consider these races to be
equal to the Metropolitan Saturday city class event and sometimes
even equal to a Quality race or higher.
3 YEAR OLDS Around Jan. Feb &
Mar. each year there are special races for 3yo's that carry huge
prizemoney in Northern New South Wales. Some of these 3yo Quality
H'caps could be rated as you would if they were starting in Sydney
metropolitan area on a Saturday. Often this form holds up well when
they take on the city 3yo opposition.
Victorian Provincial & Country
Form
Because it is usually quicker to get
to Provincial tracks in Victoria the class of these races are reasonably
higher than some of NSW provincial tracks. The main Provincial tracks
are:-
Ballarat, Bendigo, Cranbourne, Geelong,
Hamilton, Kilmore, Kyneton, Moe, Mornington, Pakenham, Sale, Seymour,
Werribee and Yarra Glen.
The Country tracks usually are quite
lower in standard:-
Ararat, Avoca, Benalla, Colac, Donald,
Echuca, Horsham, Kerang, Swan Hill, Stony Creek, Tatura, Traralgon,
Wangaratta and Warnambool,
TIPS.... Look at the prizemoney on
offer before deciding whether a track is
Provincial or Country. Often some open class events are called Quality
Handicaps however the prizemoney is too low and they have attracted
the normal Provincial and/or Country horses. Treat these like Open
Handicaps.
CARE.. Sometimes the form at the Provincial
tracks is as low as the Country tracks. Watch for Saturday racing
at these venues. Often it is much lower than the mid-week events.
There are times when the Provincials have carnivals where they run
Quality Handicaps which attract city class runners. Treat these
with respect. Go over the previous form of the runners to determine
what rating to give these races.
Queensland Provincial & Country
Form
This is relatively easy to sort out.
The centres close to Brisbane are the Provincial races and they
include:-
Caloundra, Gold Coast, Ipswich and
Toowoomba
The Country tracks vary much more
than other states. As a rule the major provincial towns on the eastern
seaboard are slightly stronger than the inland townships. They could
be seperated like this:-
Townsville, Rockhampton, Cairns and
Mackay
On most occasions, Townsville and
Rockhampton might be 1k stronger than the other two.
The lesser quality Country tracks
worthy of a mention could be:-
Atherton, Ayr, Beaudesert, Bowen,
Bundaberg, Eidsvold, Esk, Gatton, Gympie, Gordonvale, Home Hill,
Innisfail, Kilcoy, Mt. Perry, Murwillumbah, Mt. Isa, Nanango, Roma,
Stanthorpe and Warwick.
South Australia Provincial &
Country Form
This state has a few stronger Provincial
centres compared to it's country tracks:-
Balaklava, Gawler, Murray Bridge and
Strathalbyn
Country tracks are numerous but a
few that come to mind are:-
Bordertown, Clare, Halidon, Oakbank,
Mt. Gambia, Port Augusta, Port Pirie
Again, Prizemoney on offer plays a
big part on what class of runner is attracted.
Sometimes the major Provincial tracks can be only a little stronger
than the Country tracks.
Western Australia Provincial &
Country Form
Being such a huge state, the centres
close to Perth are the obviously a little stronger than the other
circuits. However, I prefer to class all races outside the two main
Perth tracks as Country for my rating purposes.
Tasmanian Provincial & Country
Form
All tracks in Tasmania apart from
Elwick, Mowbray and to a lesser degree Devonport should be treated
as Country tracks.
The class of Tasmanian form is well
below that of there mainland couterparts. The rare specimens like
Alfa or the great stayer Piping Lane are the exception naturally.
Once a horse shows any real potential they are taken to Victoria
or South Australia to race for the better prizemoney.
New Zealand Provincial and Country
Form
New Zealand racing is in the doldrums.
Their prizemoney had dried up and owners and trainers are leaving
in their droves. Why race a horse in NZ for half the prizemoney
that you can win in Australia.
As in all walks of life, people will
follow the best return on their investment. Racing takes a huge
investment in dollar terms.
With the Asian market opening right
up to the NZ thoroughbred, the industry will be left with the horses
that could not sell as the only horses left to race in that country.
If they then show any promise whatsoever, they are quickly packed
off to Australia or sold off to the International market.
With this exodus, the ratings on NZ
races has deteriorated accordingly. Even their highest Quality Handicap
events do not measure up to those in Australia.
By comparison to Australian states,
NZ metropolitan open handicaps are below NSW and Victoria and marginally
stronger than South Australia and Queensland.
My Ratings Made Simple program has taken these class figures into
consideration when you go to rate the New Zealand horse when they
races in Australia.
Because of the small size of New Zealand it becomes more difficult
to sort out the differences in the above two. Refer New Zealand
Form Apart from the major city class tracks like Avondale, Ellerslie,
Riccarton, Te Rapa and Trentham you would nominate most others as
Provincial.
Some Provincial tracks would be:-
Hastings, Invercargill, Matamaata,
Pukehohe, Rotorau, Tauranga, Te Aroha
The rest could be designated as Country tracks.
Often during major carnivals, the
Quality Handicaps are equal to the city class events. Check the
fields before classing them as Quality H'caps Prov. or Quality H'caps
Country.
Top
Time v Weight Handicapping
We have worked with both times and
weight handicapping over the years. For 12 months we used to compare
weight ratings with my time handicapping ratings. We would then
combine the pricing on both. In other words if the time rating had
horse at 2/1 and the weight handicapping had it at 3/1 I would then
split the difference e.g. 5/2 etc.
The effort involved in doing both
by pencil, paper and calculator was far too great for the results
received. Too often the time rating turned us off plenty of weight
handicapping winners. I dropped it as time not well spent and concentrated
on programming the weight handicapping process. Thus The Whip was
born.
There are far too many variables in
time rating to be reliable. If all track surfaces were the same
then you might be able to get a reliable guide. If all tracks were
exactly the same distance and shape then that might help also. If
someone could explain how you rate a Moonee Valley 1200m race with
a Caulfield 1200m race it might help. The class can be exacltly
the same but at Caulfield they might run 2 seconds faster compared
to their Moonee Valley performance.
After stating all this above, we still
record the times for each race run in our database. Every horse
that finishes 1 length behind the winner is penalised a .2 of a
second. In other words, Horse A won in 1:10. Horse B came second
beaten 1 length then it's time would be recorded as 1:10.2. Horse
C 1.5 lengths would be 1:10.3 etc. There could be some room for
this time handicapping in races under 1400m. Races at and below
this distance range are less reliable than races at 1600m as witnessed
by our Race Statistics over the past 3.5 years.
Some form of time adjustment factor
may have to be considered down the track and by recording the times
in our database we could do a Race Statistical Query at some future
time to see if it would have helped our handicapping. Naturally
as an owner of The Whip you would automatically be eligible for
any such improvement.
Top
Track
Bias
The buzz phrase with many Australian
commentators is "track bias". What this means is simply
that the layout or the track texture or condition of the individual
track gives certain horses a bias for or against their particular
running styles. It may be a track bias that favours front runners
or alternatively those horses off the pace and coming home late.
It might be Caulfield when the track
is rain affected. Horses that run at the rear cannot get home fast
enough to catch the front running brigade. They have suffered from
"track bias". Experienced race watchers look at the early
races run at the track before they finalise their selections.
There is little doubt that a bias
does exist at times. The effects are particularly significant at
tracks like Moonee Valley and the straight 1200m course at Flemington.
With Moonee Valley Australians were
introduced to a new racing surface. To suggest that all horses get
an even run on this surface is ridiculous. I usually dismiss a strong
run made by a horse at Moonee Valley when it's previous form has
not been up to the ratings it achieved at this track. This is a
true horses for courses track. A tricky track to profit on as yet
until further data is available through more races being run at
the track.
The straight course at Flemington
is a shocker also. Horses have two sides in which to choose from.
The grandstand side, or the normal inside track. Too often one of
these sides is lengths faster than the other side. I treat each
side of the track as a separate race entirely for my past race results.
In other words, if a horse ran down the inside track and was beaten
by 2 lengths by the horse who ran down the grandstand side. I might
not penalise the horse 3 kilograms as I would on a standard track
layout. I would look at his or her past performances and the ratings
of the other runners on his side. Then apply commonsense. Should
my research on the ratings acheived by the outside brigade prove
totally out of kilter with the inside brigade, that is when I recommend
that you adopt my two race strategy. A word of warning with Flemington
straight track betting, tread lightly and go only for the obvious
overlay horses.
Track Bias can work for you and against
the unwary.
Top
Trainers
There are good trainers and there
are very ordinary trainers. Your job as The Whip handicapper is
to know the good ones and to give them a small bonus each time they
have a starter in a race.
The obvious area to look firstly is
the strike rates. In other words a trainer who lands 1 winner every
6 times they have a starter is a trainer to take notice of when
considering a bonus. Just as horses and jockeys who are consistent
get a bonus, the trainer who is consistent also gets a bonus. I
suggest that you include any bonus into the X-Factor column when
doing the Rate the Race section. Simply add the bonus to any other
factor that you have included in that column.
Convert their strike rate for a 12
month period to a % figure. The 1 to 6 starters converts to a 16.66%
strike rate. I have prepared a guide for you to consider when you
would like to give a small bonus to a trainer and they are:-
25% and above...................1
k bonus
20% to <25% ......................0.8 k
15% to <20%...................... 0.5k
11% to <15%...................... 0.3k
Below 11%............................ nil
Tips and traps when looking at a trainers
bonus. Don't go to the training premiership tables and give the
winning premiership trainer the maximum 1 kilo bonus. Some premiership
winning trainers have a woeful strike rate and in fact deserve no
bonus whatsovever.
The exceptions are Gai Waterhouse
in Sydney and Lee Freedman in Melbourne. Both have excellent strike
rates and generally do not over estimate the performance or class
of the horses under their care. In other words they try and place
their horses where they stand the best chance of winning. Isn't
that nice of them to help us out by doing their own homework.
Top
Trainers Winning
Formulas
"When you're on a good thing
stick to it "
Trainers should and usually do know
their horses backwards.
They know within a week or two when it should reach peak fitness.
They know how many runs it will take.
The good ones can plan out a strategy so that the horse is at peak
fitness for a particular race.
It might be a quality handicap over
1600m. In the past their horse won after 2 conditioning runs and
when stepped up to it's ideal distance of 1600m. Logic states that
if this worked for them last time, why would they change a winning
formula?
When looking for the horses BRR try
and put yourself into the mind of their trainers. You have the past
history of the horse in front of you. Look for patterns in the past
and try and anticipate where the horse is now by comparison.
Many big winners can come the way
of handicappers who do not accept a previous run or two on face
value and go on the horses and trainers past deeds.
Top
Weight Handicapping
In a handicap sprint event for human
beings, like the professional Stawell Gift in Australia, you find
the best qualified athletes have to start behind the other runners
in a staggered starting blocks. If we used weight in human handicapping
events the fastest runners would all start together but wear knap
sacks with lead weights to slow them down.
They do not use staggered barrier
stalls in horse racing so club handicappers use the next best thing,
weight. In horse racing the standard weight figure to drop a horse's
performance back one length in performance is by adding 1.5 kilograms
to a horses saddle.
In The Whip's weight ratings theory,
we assume that the best racehorse ever to grace the planet is rated
as the perfect 100 kilos. For the sake of this exercise let's call
this mythical horse PEGASUS. Every horse is rated below this magnificent
thoroughbred.
In a hypothetical match race, this
horse might start in the highest quality handicap field ever assembled
on Earth. This field might have a limit weight of 48 kilograms and
under normal circumstances the race would be rated at about 85k.
PEGASUS wins this race fully extended and at his Maximum Rating
carrying 63 kilograms. The perfect race horse who will never grace
this planet.
The story of PEGASUS continues:-
Let's assume that you have a race
quality rating of 85 kilograms. You would add the weight that PEGASUS
carried over the limit weight ( 63k minus 48k) being 15 kilograms
onto the class quality rating of 85k and you have the perfect 100k
rating.
The second placed horse
It carried 58 kilograms and finished
2 lengths behind PEGASUS. would rate this horse like this :-
Class Quality 85k plus weight over
the limit ( 58k minus 48k) being 10k and we now take off the 1 length
beaten margin ( 1 X 1.5 kilo's) = 1.5 kilograms. The second placed
horses rating now is 85k plus 10k = 95k minus beaten margin 1.5k
= 93.5k
Same with the remainder
You do the entire field this way and
you have past ratings for all the horses.
You use these past ratings to gauge their ability when competing
in future races.
The Whip has further assumed that
the best Australian thoroughbred ever produced ran in this race
and they handicapped him with 56 kilos. The horse finished 3rd beaten
2 lengths. The Australian horse would be rated this way (85k plus
8k minus (2 lengths x 1.5k) or 3k ) 90 kilograms.
This theory is translated throughout
the Australian weight based class system of racing. It is a theory
that can be used in any country in the world providing that you
are able to differentiate between the class strengths.
In Australia they range from a theoretical
super quality handicap rated at about 80k to a lowly 2yo country
maiden race rated about 38k. All races in Australia fall within
these parameters and are the basis of The Whip's weight ratings.
Top
Copyright The Whip
1998-2009
|
